MVSD Cases & Odds: Every Case, Every Drop, Every Percentage
How MVSD Cases Work
Cases are the main way new weapon skins enter the game. Each case has a fixed drop pool with published-in-game odds, and two rules of thumb apply across all of them:
- Legendary rolls sit around 0.5-3% depending on the case tier.
- Collectible rolls (the grail tier) are roughly 0.25% and only appear in premium cases.
Cases drop skins only — banners are earned elsewhere. Free cases come from codes and milestone events; the rest cost gems.
Standard & Premium Case #1
The starter pool. Premium doubles your odds at every rarity above common.
| Rarity | Drops | Standard odds | Premium odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | Whirl (gun), Quartz (knife), Shimmer (knife), Unlucky (gun) | 65% | 40% |
| Uncommon | Feather (knife), Shadow (knife), Quantum (gun), Oak (gun) | 20% | 30% |
| Rare | Leafstone (knife), Glyph (knife), Frost (gun), Hazard (gun) | 10% | 18% |
| Ultra-Rare | Bejeweled (knife), Rainbow (knife), Toy (gun), Rainbow (gun) | 4% | 9% |
| Legendary | Legendary Case (a case that guarantees a legendary) | 1% | 3% |
Note the quirk: Case #1’s legendary slot drops another case, not a skin — the Legendary Case below.
Standard & Premium Case #2
The newer pool, and the only regular source of Collectible-tier items.
| Rarity | Drops | Standard odds | Premium odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | Chrome (gun), Chrome (knife), Leather (gun), Dust (knife), Aluminum (knife) | 65% | 45% |
| Uncommon | Mono (gun), Circuit (knife), Flux (gun), Encrypt (knife) | 20% | 30% |
| Rare | Neon Splash (gun), Geometry (knife), Blue Emulsion (gun) | 10% | 15% |
| Ultra-Rare | Diffuse (gun), Graffiti (knife) | 4.5% | 8.5% |
| Legendary | Techno (gun), Techno (knife) | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Collectible | Techno Sniper | — | 0.25% |
Legendary Case
Guaranteed legendary, one roll from a six-skin pool: Splatter (gun), Saber (knife), Dragonbreathe (knife), Void Crossbow (gun), 2B (gun), Bat Scythe (knife). Sourced from Case #1’s 1-3% slot or events — this is where most high-end trade anchors enter circulation.
Limited Cases (Luggage Line)
Seasonal pools with the same odds structure as Case #2 (45-65% commons down to 0.25% Collectible in premium). The summer Luggage pair ran S’more/Sailor commons up through Scoop (gun/knife) legendaries and the Scoop Sniper collectible.
The rule that matters: once a limited case leaves, its supply is frozen forever. That’s why Luggage-line ultra-rares and legendaries carry a premium over their standard-case equivalents on the value list.
Are Cases Worth Opening?
Expected value says no — at 0.5-3% legendary odds you will usually spend more gems than the pull is worth. Open cases when:
- They’re free (codes, milestones — see the codes page),
- It’s a limited case about to leave (frozen supply floors your downside),
- Or you’re opening for fun with gems you’d never trade anyway.
If your goal is a specific legendary, trading for it directly via the value list is almost always cheaper than gambling for it.